Willis has said 2025 was a year of recalibration for the aviation market in which there was a wave of claims and legal disputes following a High Court ruling that found claims for aircraft stranded in Russia were covered under the contingent section of the aircraft lessors’ hull war insurance policies.

In its report, Airline Insurance Market Renewal Outlook: Q1 2026, Willis said there were around 400 western-owned aircraft stranded in Russia, which had been leased to Russian airlines. It said the High Court decision had prompted new entrants into the aviation market with a focus on growth rather than legacy issues.

Looking ahead to this year, Willis said early indicators suggested there would be a continued hardening of hull and liability prices, although it expected increases to be moderate.

While new entrants will ensure the market is not short of capacity, the focus treaty reinsurers have on systemic risks such as geopolitical shocks and cyber events could make placements requiring large limits more challenging.

The report added: “Insurers are likely to target increases, starting around 10% for clean risks and higher adjustments for major or distressed accounts. Competitive pressures in the war risks market may sustain continued rate reductions, but geopolitical uncertainty could reverse this trend quickly.”

Willis highlighted the following emerging themes as those likely to shape the market during 2026: cybersecurity, geopolitical volatility, technological disruption and sustainability and ESG.

It said that while existing carriers in the market were flexing their pricing to drive profit, they still had to contend with new entrants writing business for market share.

The report concluded: “As 2026 unfolds, everyone involved in the aviation insurance market will be navigating a landscape defined by competitive pricing pressures, evolving risk profiles, and technological disruption.”